OnPaper
Reading the numbers
Is your club actually as good as the table says?
Usually not. Some clubs are better than their position says. Others have been getting away with it.
Fulham v Newcastle United
EPL
Newcastle United sit 2 places higher.
Espanyol v Deportivo A Coruña
LFP
Deportivo A Coruña sit 6 places higher.
Manchester United v Aston Villa
EPL
Aston Villa sit 7 places higher.
This week's widest gap
VfB Stuttgart v Werder Bremen
BUN · 5th v 11th
Werder Bremen are 6 places above VfB Stuttgart.
VfB Stuttgart can score: 2nd of 18 for attack. Werder Bremen concede: 14th. That is most of this fixture.
The places between them are not the story.
9 more fixtures like this
Where it is decided
1st
18th
VfB Stuttgart attack 2nd v Werder Bremen defence 14th
2.34
Werder Bremen attack 14th v VfB Stuttgart defence 8th
1.17
Goals each side should expect, from their attack against the other's defence. Further left is better.
OnPaper picks one club a week from Europe's six biggest leagues and measures where they sit against where the season is heading.
Manchester United are projected to finish 8th, but they have made a slow start.
Club of the week
Manchester United
Projected finish against league position
REFRESHED WEEKLY
Table says 17th. We say 8th.
Projected finish
8th
▼1
League position
17th
Gap
9 places
0%
title
12%
top four
21%
mid-table
0%
relegation
Model
League position
1st
5th
10th
15th
20th
Preseason
4th
4 Sept
4th
9th
7 Sept
4th
10th▼1
14 Sept
5th▼1
13th▼3
21 Sept
5th
12th▲1
22 Sept
5th
12th
24 Sept
5th
12th
28 Sept
5th
12th
5 Oct
5th
12th
12 Oct
5th
13th▼1
19 Oct
6th▼1
13th
26 Oct
7th▼1
16th▼3
2 Nov
8th▼1
17th▼1
Bars are measured against the league table: further right is further down.
Likely range: 4th to 13th
OnPaper outputs
Ranked by how sure the model is
Model ranking refreshed every 3h
UPLUkraine Premier League
11/6, 11:00 AM11/6/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Obolon'-BrovarvsLivyi Bereh
GOAL MODEL
Under 3
Clarity 54
78.2%
L1Ligue 1
11/6, 7:45 PM11/6/2026, 7:45:00 PM
ToulousevsStrasbourg
SCORING MODEL
Yes
Clarity 40
67.7%
UPLUkraine Premier League
11/6, 1:30 PM11/6/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Polissya ZhytomyrvsVeres
MATCH MODEL
Home
Clarity 51
66.7%
2 more projections below this
The full list across 17 leagues, ranked by clarity, is free with an account.
Featured matches
What the model makes of this week's fixtures.
Premier League
Fri, Nov 6, 08:00 PM
Everton
Coventry City
Outcome
Home Win
49%
Goals 2.5
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score
BTTS Yes
53%
6
Clarity grade
Low clarity
Premier League
Sat, Nov 7, 12:30 PM
Leeds United
Tottenham Hotspur
The full model read with a free account
24
Clarity grade
Low clarity
Premier League
Sat, Nov 7, 03:00 PM
Fulham
Newcastle United
The full model read with a free account
4
Clarity grade
Low clarity
Premier League
Sat, Nov 7, 03:00 PM
Arsenal
Hull City
The full model read with a free account
20
Clarity grade
Low clarity
Premier League
Sat, Nov 7, 05:30 PM
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
The full model read with a free account
15
Clarity grade
Low clarity
Premier League
Sun, Nov 8, 02:00 PM
Sunderland
Chelsea
The full model read with a free account
15
Clarity grade
Low clarity
Premier League
Sun, Nov 8, 02:00 PM
Ipswich Town
AFC Bournemouth
The full model read with a free account
14
Clarity grade
Low clarity
Premier League
Sun, Nov 8, 02:00 PM
Crystal Palace
Liverpool
The full model read with a free account
16
Clarity grade
Low clarity
Premier League
Sun, Nov 8, 02:00 PM
Brighton & Hove Albion
Brentford
The full model read with a free account
18
Clarity grade
Low clarity
Premier League
Sun, Nov 8, 04:30 PM
Manchester United
Aston Villa
The full model read with a free account
15
Clarity grade
Low clarity
≡
Standings
Premier League Standings
updated 16h ago
Tap a team for full stats
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UCLArsenal | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 24 | LWWWW |
| 2 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 21 | WWWLL | |
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 19 | WWWLW | |
| 4 | UCLChelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 16 | LWWLW |
| 5 | UELLiverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 15 | WLWWL |
| 6 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 14 | WDLDW | |
| 7 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 13 | WDLLW | |
| 8 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 12 | LLWWW | |
| 9 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 12 | LDWWW | |
| 10 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 12 | WDWWD | |
| 11 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 11 | LDLDD | |
| 12 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 11 | DLDDL | |
| 13 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 | WLLWL | |
| 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 | LWLDD | |
| 15 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 | DLWWD | |
| 16 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 9 | WWLLW | |
| 17 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 | DDDLL | |
| 18 | RelegationCrystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 7 | DWLLL |
| 19 | RelegationNottingham Forest | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 6 | LLLDL |
| 20 | RelegationSunderland | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 5 | LLLDL |
On Paper
Research grade projections. Transparent tracking. No hype.
© 2026 On Paper Analytic. Informational research only.