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Projections, form and season leaders.
updated 6h ago
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UCL Manchester City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 | UCL Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 12 | WWWWL |
| 3 | UCL Brighton & Hove Albion | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 10 | WLDWW |
| 4 | UCL Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 9 | WDDDW |
| 5 | UEL Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 | WDDWD |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 9 | DDWDW |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 9 | WDDDW |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 | WWDDL |
| 9 | Newcastle United | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 | DWDLW |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 | WWLDL |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 | WLLWL |
| 12 | Manchester United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 | LWDLD |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 | LDDWL |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 | LWDLL |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 | LLDLW |
| 17 | AFC Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 | LDDDL |
| 18 | Relegation Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 | LLLLW |
| 19 | Relegation Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 | LLLDD |
| 20 | Relegation Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 | LLDDL |
Goals, and what is behind them. Games scored in separates the striker on five in five from the one with a hat-trick and two blanks, and non-penalty goals separates open play from the spot.
1

Erling Haaland


Manchester City · 26 · 5 apps · 450 mins
4
Games scored in
5
Goals
2

Alexander Isak


Liverpool · 27 · 5 apps · 415 mins
3
Games scored in
4
Goals
3

Rayan Cherki


Manchester City · 23 · 5 apps · 306 mins
2
Games scored in
3
Goals
4

João Pedro


Chelsea · 25 · 4 apps · 360 mins
3
Games scored in
3
Goals
5

Brian Brobbey


Sunderland · 24 · 5 apps · 401 mins
1
Games scored in
3
Goals
6

Bukayo Saka


Arsenal · 25 · 5 apps · 419 mins
3
Games scored in
3
Goals
7

Marcus Tavernier


AFC Bournemouth · 27 · 5 apps · 427 mins
3
Games scored in
3
Goals
8

Morgan Rogers


Chelsea · 24 · 5 apps · 439 mins
3
Games scored in
3
Goals
9

Pascal Groß


Brighton & Hove Albion · 35 · 5 apps · 450 mins
3
Games scored in
3
Goals
10

Antoine Semenyo


Manchester City · 26 · 5 apps · 450 mins
1
Games scored in
2
Goals
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Every fixture we cover, with the full distribution rather than a single pick. Days run in order; within a day, the clearest reads come first.
Showing the next three days. Create a free account for a week or a fortnight ahead.
10 of 30 fixtures
Early in the season, most reads here are low clarity teams haven't played enough matches for the model to be confident.
Today
6 fixtures
Arsenal v Leeds United
11:30 AM
48%
Arsenal
Over 2.5 39%
BTTS 43%
Low clarity · 23
Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion
2:00 PM
· form rising
46%
Brighton & Hove Albion
Over 2.5 55%
BTTS 58%
Low clarity · 19
Chelsea v AFC Bournemouth
2:00 PM
42%
AFC Bournemouth
Over 2.5 52%
BTTS 55%
Low clarity · 10
Aston Villa v Brentford
2:00 PM
· form rising
39%
Aston Villa
Over 2.5 54%
BTTS 58%
Low clarity · 4
Ipswich Town v Fulham
2:00 PM
39%
Ipswich Town
Over 2.5 51%
BTTS 55%
Low clarity · 2
Tomorrow
3 fixtures
Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest
1:00 PM
47%
Nottingham Forest
Over 2.5 50%
BTTS 53%
Low clarity · 21
Hull City v Everton
1:00 PM
47%
Hull City
Over 2.5 49%
BTTS 52%
Low clarity · 14
Liverpool v Manchester City
3:30 PM
43%
Manchester City
Over 2.5 54%
BTTS 57%
Low clarity · 13
Monday, Oct 12
1 fixture
Coventry City v Newcastle United
7:00 PM
39%
Newcastle United
Over 2.5 49%
BTTS 54%
Low clarity · 3
CONFIDENT READS
Fixtures the model called at 60% or higher, last 30 days
50%
1 of 2 correct
The ones we got wrong
Nottingham Forest 0–1 Coventry City
Model favoured home at 63.9%
League pulse
Goals per match
2.67
last 9 matches
Draws
22%
at or below 28% average
Model accuracy
47.9%
vs 33% at random · 472 scored
Avg clarity
15
10 fixtures ahead
On Paper
Research grade projections. Transparent tracking. No hype.
© 2026 On Paper Analytic. Informational research only.
Signal Clarity — 37
There's reasonable data behind this, but either the sample is still building or the outcomes sit fairly close together.
Clarity is not the chance of the result happening — that's the percentage. It's how much weight the read deserves.
0–29 low · 30–59 moderate · 60–100 high
Signal Clarity — 23
Thin data, a near coin-flip, or both. The projection is still our best estimate — it just isn't worth much weight.
Clarity is not the chance of the result happening — that's the percentage. It's how much weight the read deserves.
0–29 low · 30–59 moderate · 60–100 high
Signal Clarity — 19
Thin data, a near coin-flip, or both. The projection is still our best estimate — it just isn't worth much weight.
Clarity is not the chance of the result happening — that's the percentage. It's how much weight the read deserves.
0–29 low · 30–59 moderate · 60–100 high
Signal Clarity — 10
Thin data, a near coin-flip, or both. The projection is still our best estimate — it just isn't worth much weight.
Clarity is not the chance of the result happening — that's the percentage. It's how much weight the read deserves.
0–29 low · 30–59 moderate · 60–100 high
Signal Clarity — 4
Thin data, a near coin-flip, or both. The projection is still our best estimate — it just isn't worth much weight.
Clarity is not the chance of the result happening — that's the percentage. It's how much weight the read deserves.
0–29 low · 30–59 moderate · 60–100 high
Signal Clarity — 2
Thin data, a near coin-flip, or both. The projection is still our best estimate — it just isn't worth much weight.
Clarity is not the chance of the result happening — that's the percentage. It's how much weight the read deserves.
0–29 low · 30–59 moderate · 60–100 high
Signal Clarity — 21
Thin data, a near coin-flip, or both. The projection is still our best estimate — it just isn't worth much weight.
Clarity is not the chance of the result happening — that's the percentage. It's how much weight the read deserves.
0–29 low · 30–59 moderate · 60–100 high
Signal Clarity — 14
Thin data, a near coin-flip, or both. The projection is still our best estimate — it just isn't worth much weight.
Clarity is not the chance of the result happening — that's the percentage. It's how much weight the read deserves.
0–29 low · 30–59 moderate · 60–100 high
Signal Clarity — 13
Thin data, a near coin-flip, or both. The projection is still our best estimate — it just isn't worth much weight.
Clarity is not the chance of the result happening — that's the percentage. It's how much weight the read deserves.
0–29 low · 30–59 moderate · 60–100 high
Signal Clarity — 3
Thin data, a near coin-flip, or both. The projection is still our best estimate — it just isn't worth much weight.
Clarity is not the chance of the result happening — that's the percentage. It's how much weight the read deserves.
0–29 low · 30–59 moderate · 60–100 high